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Dear Readers,

Do the Olympic games ‘really’ represent a boon for savvy investors?

Well, if you believe the spruikers, then the upcoming 2032 Brisbane Olympic games is a once in a lifetime opportunity for property investors.

But is that really the case?

I feel today is an ideal time to run the rule over such claims and examine the history of other cities’ experience both in the lead up to, during, and then after their respective Olympic games.

On the surface, with Southeast Queensland (SEQ) a property hotspot currently in Australia (where the state capital Brisbane is located), even further government spending on critical infrastructure required to host the games feels like a potent combination you can’t afford to ignore.

Which means the media are quick to jump on.
Source – The Australian

Makes me wonder what previous Olympic cities went through. Was it like what the media here are suggesting? I do know that each previous iteration of the games provided a mixed experience for the host city.

So, what makes Brisbane unique in this regard? Are there any systemic problems the Queensland government needs to overcome to make it all possible, and if so, will that affect the hoped-for boom in real estate?

I think once you’ve had a read of this week’s newsletter, you may well have a different frame of mind when it comes to these games and its effects.

So, let’s take a look.

Waiting for the starters gun.

Let’s start with a high-level view of this and refer to a recent report from Benchmark Capital, a property investment group. Benchmark forecasts Brisbane house and unit prices could rise by at least 70 per cent by 2032 and says prices in regional Queensland – where many Games events will be held – could increase strongly too.

I’d prefer to stay away from the regional forecasts for today and just focus on Brisbane. That is some growth curve, particularly when you consider Brisbane already recording the nation’s strongest growth in home values over the past five years, up 92 per cent to a median $936,000, according to REA Group’s PropTrack data.

So how did Benchmark Capital reach these numbers? It did so by benchmarking recent capital cities capital growth rates before and after their own respective Olympics. Take Sydney for example, who hosted the 2000 event. Benchmark’s analysis found there was an 88 per cent growth in property prices in Sydney between 1996 and 2001.

If we look at recent overseas Olympics, prices in some London suburbs had more than doubled since that city’s 2012 Games, and since last year’s 2024 Paris Olympics home prices in areas surrounding Olympic transport hubs already had climbed by up to 30 per cent.

Separate statistics show Rio de Janeiro property prices trebled in the seven years leading up to its 2016 Olympics, then stagnated for a few years before bouncing again – up more than 50 per cent – since 2020.

Tokyo’s price moves were muddied by the pandemic, but since its 2020 Olympics, which were held in 2021, property prices have climbed between 35 and 45 per cent.

By the simple expedient of extrapolation, one can see where the figures for Brisbane’s estimated growth came from.

But you can also now understand just why the media have latched so hard on this narrative and so much investor interest has been stirred up by the upcoming games. From the above quoted article.

Benchmark Capital chief executive Fawaz Sankari said the Olympics were not a short-term “sugar hit” but instead heralded a “multi-year growth cycle supported by structural investment and lifestyle migration trends.”

“While not every suburb will boom, areas connected to Olympic infrastructure, transport upgrades and urban renewal zones are likely to outperform,” he said.

“You can expect Brisbane to outperform both the national average and several other capitals over the next decade.”

Mr Sankari said investors should target future growth corridors near Olympic venues and transport links, partner with professionals, and think beyond 2032 by considering areas benefiting from infrastructure and lifestyle improvements.

“This is not just a sporting event – it’s a nation-building moment, and smart investors will treat it as such,” he said.

I’d love to know just where they are going to find the workers who will construct all this. However, this is an issue where most involved are sober about the outcomes. They realise this will take offering even higher wages to attract the talent needed and a de-prioritisation of building new housing.

So, Brisbane can have its cake, it just can’t eat it too.

And this is where things do indeed get very interesting.
When the rubber meets the road.

Yet again, it’s that time when I ask you to put on your real estate cycle lens.

Long term readers will know just how close we are to the conclusion of the 14 years of rising land prices both in the US and globally. And so, thoughts turn quickly to just how bad will the downturn be?

From an Australian point of view, you can look at each state. And for me, the one state that will suffer the most in a few years is Victoria. Based mostly on obscene amounts of government debt. Well, I’ll tell you something, at this rate Queensland won’t be far behind them.
Source – The Australian

Now the Queensland government is already late in sending the IOC its finalised plan for what they intend to build to run the games. Naturally, this leads to blowout of costs. And it’s not like the government can ask the Olympics to be pushed back a year or two.

And so, it’s the Queensland government that must take the costs and the risks involved in upgrading so many venues within budget. But it gets even more dire for them. Outside construction, the industrial base across Queensland isn’t great, and one of the most important, coal, has just announced a further 1000 workers cut.

It is estimated that each one of those coal jobs indirectly supports 13 to 14 other jobs (on-site contractors, café owners etc).  It hurts regional communities, but it is the royalties that these coal companies pay to the state coffers.

These funds pay for this building for the games plus a multitude of other key infrastructure. The problem? The number of royalties paid is decreasing. Production costs have skyrocketed over the last few years, hence the layoffs. The royalties themselves have collapsed – falling from $12.8 billion to $10.5 billion over the past two years (fiscal 2023 v 2025) – leaving less funding for schools, hospitals, and essential services.

Add on the Federal government’s carbon-tax safeguard mechanism, and projections in the state budget for coal royalties are $5.5 billion to June 2026.

Remember where we are in the cycle – as speculation mounts near the peak, the real economy gets worse – that’s what’s happening here.

I think I’ve provided a balanced viewpoint of these games. The question for you, if perhaps you were inclined to take a closer look at the investment opportunities that undoubtedly will manifest at select locations, is how does the concluding real estate cycle in Australia affect the timing?

I know one way that you can find out, via a membership to the Boom Bust Bulletin (BBB). By studying the hidden order of the economy, you can unlock the innate timing within the 18.6-year Real Estate Cycle.

Using the now extensive archived editions, members can learn how to find the right locations for your next property investment by using the type of infrastructure building these games promise for select suburbs.

With the games due in 2032, there is a runway present now for astute buys in the right areas to best capture the majority of the gains on offer. Ironically, by the time the games begin, we will have entered the next real estate cycle. Close to the very beginning in fact.

There just this small matter of the current cycle will peak then bust before then!

What a double whammy! I can imagine many buyers panicking at this time. Only those who are aware of the timing will have the means to navigate it all.

And who knows, come home with the gold medal for real estate investing in Southeast Queensland.

Sign up now.
Best wishes,

Darren J Wilson
and your Property Sharemarket Economics Team

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This content is not personal or general advice. If you are in doubt as to how to apply or even should be applying the content in this document to your own personal situation, we recommend you seek professional financial advice. Feel free to forward this email to any other person whom you think should read it.