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Dear Readers,

How would you like to work and pay off a mortgage until you’re 104 years old?

A rhetorical question – or is it?

I’m sure absolutely no-one reading this would say ‘yes’, but believe it or not, it is actually something that could happen.

And here’s why.

Source – Allen residential

That’s right, a brand-new mortgage product is about to hit the UK real estate market. For the first time, you can apply for a fixed rate 50-year mortgage.

When I read this, I decided to ask a few friends of mine about it. No strings attached, I simply asked ‘what do you think about this?’

Their answers were revealing for me.

By and large, they all said pretty much the same thing. “Yeh, makes some sense given (how high) real estate these days”. A way to lower your monthly mortgage payments was another. Do you feel the same?

Because I see it quite differently, and that’s what I want to share with you today.

What you “must” realise is this literally opens the door to an intergenerational mortgage product. You now commit yourself and your children’s financial future on this. Don’t you think in that case you really do need to know fully what you’ve committed to?

But here is what I see; one of the most reliable signs that the end is near. We’ve now gone completely over the top in every respect when it comes to propping up the real estate market.

It’s no longer funny, it’s actually quite dangerous.

So, if you are considering this option as a way to finally get on the property ladder yourself, or you simply would benefit from knowing when the peak is in and what happens next, I think you’ll find this edition of interest.

Slave to the system.

The first point I’d like to make was alluded to above. I find it difficult to accept that anyone over the age of 50 years old would either want or qualify for such a lengthy mortgage. For a good reason. You would likely have to still work way beyond retirement age to pay it off.

By its very nature, this would be primarily aimed at the 20-30 years old cohort of potential borrowers.

Currently, in the UK, 40-year-old mortgages are available, though they are rare and variable only.

But we could be on the cusp of a real shift in the UK mortgage market. Like Australia, fixed rate loans range between 2 to 5 years in length.  The variable rate mortgage also typically falls between 25 to 30 years duration. Again, very similar to Australia.

However, given the length, it’s crystal clear who the primary market is for these loans, first home buyers.

Here is how the above article broke down the news.

It can often be hard for many of us to think five years ahead financially, but a new lender may offer borrowers the chance to fix their mortgages for 50 years.

New lender Perenna has been granted a licence to offer a 50-year fixed rate mortgage in the UK, meaning people could lock in their home loan until 2072.

The idea is somewhat novel in a market where fixed rates of between two and five years are the norm.

I do wonder just how the reality of being indebted for the next 50 years guaranteed registers for those who take this up.

However, perhaps we are simply looking at an anomaly. Much like the previously mentioned 40-year mortgages, which are offered by a few specialised online and real banks to those customers who have difficult financial circumstances.

But Perenna may not be alone for long. Chris Sykes, technical director at mortgage company Private Finance says that there are rumours in the market of more lenders bringing out a similar product.

‘I have heard of others looking at releasing these products – ultra-long term fixed, even prior to this news,’ so there could be some others in the pipeline in the medium term,’ he says.

Ultra-long products are not completely unheard of. Lender Kensington Mortgages, which specialises in lending to those with adverse credit, offers a fixed product with a term of anything between 11 and 40 years, while online lender and broker Habito have a similar deal.

Well now, perhaps not so specialized after all. It does appear there will be some competition now for prospective home buyers to decide.

It was now that I wondered; has the UK government had a hand in making these available?

Source – This is Money.co.uk

Talk about the gift that keeps on giving! What a wonderful inheritance to pass onto one’s children.

The fact it’s former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson who came up with this should not really surprise. Being an avid supporter of big pharma, capitalists, and speculators the conservative Torie party he led relied heavily on the donations from the country’s largest rent-seekers.

Source – Independent.co.uk
To be fair though, he wasn’t the only rent-seeker who is strongly considering as much.
Source – ABC News

“Could it work?” Is that truly the best our media can offer here? President Trump might think it’s a good idea, but he would, right? This is just what a renowned property mogul would want.

But for mine, all of this simply speaks to a greater truth.

The last flailing’s of a desperate financial system.

Let’s put aside for a moment the thought of intergenerational lending, horrid as that first sounds. And acknowledge these truly are brand new products, which means not a whole lot are known currently about them.

It seems inevitable that the prevailing interest rate for them will be higher than other fixed-rate mortgages. Perenna themselves have yet to announce this but Habito and Kensington charge significantly more than the market average for their long-term fixes.

According to the first quoted article, for a 36–40-year flexi fixed term product Kensington Mortgages’ lowest rate is currently 4.34 per cent with a £1499 completion fee at 60 percent LTV. The deal also includes the option of 10 per cent overpayment and can be used for house purchases or mortgaging your property.

The lender also offers (for purchases, not refinancing) a 95 percent LTV for the same term at 5.16 per cent with the same completion fee and an allowance of 10 per cent overpayment.

So, what kind of market response has there been to these long-term flexi/fixed rate products? From the above article.

Craig McKinlay, new business director at Kensington Mortgages, says it has seen a lot of interest in its long-term product from first time buyers.

The 5 per cent deposit option on the mortgage is attractive to those getting a foot on the ladder, and the fixed rate provides security amid the ongoing interest rate uncertainty.

A longer-term mortgage also avoids the inevitable hassle and stress of re-mortgaging your property every two or five years. Instead, homeowners can plan further ahead financially with the security of knowing exactly what their mortgage payments will be long term.

Sales speak sure, but you’d agree there’s some merit in what’s said. First time home buyers arguably would appreciate some certainty. Well, what was said next should incur the opposite thought.

Furthermore, because the rate never changes lenders do not have to bother with a rate-based financial stress test for borrowers.

For mine, that’s insane. That spotting a fire and then pouring gasoline on it in a vain attempt to put the fire out. Did you know the Bank of England has abolished its mandatory financial stress tests for lenders?

Whilst there’s nothing stopping any bank or lender from applying those same tests themselves, there is no mandate to do it.

No mandate means no oversight. Easier credit.

Yes, it’s early days here, but the trend is global here, and it’s troubling. We lack critical details for now, like what Loan to Value Ratio (LVR) Perenna will apply to borrowers (20%LVR, 5%?) nor do we know what penalties there are implicit in the contract should a borrower need to break the contract or refinance.

But with the October announcement here in Australia of 5% down mortgages backed by the government for first time home buyers, it really is time to call these out for what they are.

This is not financial innovation, this is desperation! This literally is the final gasps of a financial system intent on squeezing the last drops of blood out of an indebted society, regardless of the long-term consequences.

And it is a sign, a sign to do the opposite. Young first time homebuyers risk becoming entrapped. I say this because I know my 18.6-year Real Estate Cycle history. Should history repeat, I know full well how this will end.

I don’t want you to become another victim like so many others will this late in the cycle. Knowledge is power, and the best knowledge to have to assist you right now is here—via a membership to the Boom Bust Bulletin (BBB).

Learn the fundamentals of the real estate cycle with monthly editions that can turbocharge your understanding of land economics and unveil the hidden order of the economy. And with it, discover the inherent timing of the cycle.

It’s that same timing that shows me that, as the peak of land values approaches, interest rates rise (which benefits those with fixed rates) but as recession begins and the floor of the real estate market collapses, governments insist on lower rates (hurting those with fixed rates).

Those who get their timing wrong on this decision have no choice but to stay put and pay those higher rates.

A huge strain to place upon young people with their whole working careers ahead of them. Possibly even affecting their decision on when to raise a family.

Now is not the time to go into too much debt. Instead, become a contrarian, one versed in how the economy moves, why it does so, and when.

Sometimes, patience truly is a virtue. Is spending $47 USD a year to learn such patience really too much?

Sign up now.

Best wishes,

Darren J Wilson
and your Property Sharemarket Economics Team

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This content is not personal or general advice. If you are in doubt as to how to apply or even should be applying the content in this document to your own personal situation, we recommend you seek professional financial advice. Feel free to forward this email to any other person whom you think should read it.