Mr President, the U.S has just run out of time”. The playbook that will bring the country to its knees.

‘The more things change, the more they stay the same.’ I’m sure you’ve heard this famous expression before. But I think I there is an even better, more apt, phrase than that:

‘Those who don’t study history are doomed to repeat it.’

It was the overriding thought I had when I saw the headline below.

Which means, given that the average median age of homebuyers today is 40 years old (a historic high), those who take up such a product will not outlive their mortgage. What an inheritance for their respective children.

However, none of these initiatives fixes the underlying issue, one that has been present since the last real estate cycle. America isn’t building enough houses. Goldman Sachs estimates that current activity still leaves a 3m to 4m home shortage. It has been this way for over 20 years at least.

Sure, there is a political angle present here which we would be wise to mention. Trump is heading for the midterm elections in November. The issue of home ownership and cost of living are prime concerns for his base. They want to be hearing what their president intends to do to help them.

Here is my take, for what it’s worth. It all just feels too late. These are band aid solutions to try desperately to fix gaping holes. A cursory look at these proposed solutions simply highlights the intractable problems that keep piling up.

The United States is running out of time.

I did mention we have been here before. However, just consider this chart before we review what happened beforehand.

Being government owned, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have mandated limits on how many mortgage-backed securities they can hold and reissue. Trump’s plan would take those holdings to nearly $450 billion, which is the regulatory maximum for Fannie and Freddie, who are currently limited to a maximum of $225 billion each in retained mortgage assets.

Fannie and Freddie purchase home loans to package into investment vehicles known as mortgage-backed securities, which they then typically sell to investors. The theory goes this helps ensure ready investment demand for mortgages, bringing liquidity and stability to the market.

Between 2005 to 2008, Fannie and Freddie ballooned their combined holdings to more than $1.5 trillion to juice earnings, by borrowing heavily at low interest rates and ploughing the money into high-yield debt and increasingly risky assets.

That strategy backfired in the subprime mortgage crisis (what we know as the bust of the last 18.6-year Real Estate Cycle), which blew up their balance sheets with large valuation and credit losses, necessitating the federal bailout that landed Fannie and Freddie in conservatorship. Mortgage Bankers Association Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni said the following about this in the above article:

“Coming out of the financial crisis, and throughout the policy debates for the past several decades, there has been widespread agreement that (Freddie and Fannie) should not return to having the large balance sheets that they had pre-crisis…”

“The liquidity and hedging challenges they faced with such large mortgage portfolios ultimately were destabilizing for the market.”

So, why are we doing this all over again?!

History lessons have not been learnt. History therefore must repeat again.

There is now no escaping the fate that soon awaits the US and the world, regardless of how much window dressing you choose to apply. 99% of people however will think that these are all possible answers to the living and homeownership crisis in the US and globally. You cannot afford to be one of them.

Your job today is to ensure you and your family are on the right side of history, not the wrong side of it. These all represent the final desperate attempts at keeping the punch bowl full for just a little longer. Keep the whole charade moving for just that little bit further.

The antidote to such melancholy is knowledge of the 18.6-year Real Estate Cycle. And that knowledge begins with a membership to the Boom Bust Bulletin (BBB). Learn the hidden order of the economy and how it drives the unique timing of the real estate cycle.

It will provide you the solid grounding you need to trust the timing of the cycle with monthly editions and weekly videos. All for just $47USD a year.

Outrageous value!

2026 seems to be the year where the news cycle goes into overdrive. It really does feel that news of genuine consequence is dropping every hour.

A Trump-led criminal investigation alleging that US Fed Jerome Powell lied to a June 2025 testimony with Congress amps up long-standing pressure by the US president to remove Powell from his office as Fed chair and replace him with someone more aligned with Trump’s vision.

In plain English: someone who will drop interest rates hard and very fast. And yet, there are genuine fears this attack on the Federal Reserve’s independence could push up risk premiums and keep long-term borrowing costs higher.

Which would make everything the Trump administration is proposing in this newsletter largely redundant. We really do live in interesting times.

Makes you wonder what you can truly trust. I have the means to cut through all this noise.

Isn’t it time you had that ability too?

Sign up now.