*This article was written from Phil’s point of view.

Check out the January effect – consistent pattern, low mid-December, top January 7 (I believe US coys pay dividends in January, hence the early buying).

Always keep watch for triangles – KYC – reliable patterns those ones.

In the year or two just gone, it has been interesting to note; that 60 years back, Japan entered the war with kamikaze pilots, ie planes used as weapons; 30 years back, one of the top agenda items for the then McMahon government, terrorist actions. 30 years being 360 months, 60 years 2 by 360.

See these charts:

• KYC
• January Effect 2002
• January Effect 2003

Note that the McMahon government in 1972 released a huge increase in government spending – plenty of pork barrels, tax cuts, etc. – in an effort to be re-elected. This was 17 years into the property cycle of the time; the government deficit being further inflationary and feeding land value and other asset prices. Observe recent Bush announcements, economic stimulus packages, etc designed to inflate the US economy so he stands a better chance of re-election in 2004. War spending is designed to do the same (as well as take local problems off the front page). We are 11 years into this property cycle. I forecast it to run the full 18 years again.

I note Australian property developer stocks are near highs or trending up at present – FKP, ATR, WWD – to name a few; that is a market judgment suggesting improving earnings for these companies and is not suggesting a property downturn any time soon.