Market Forecasts
*This article was written from Phil’s point of view.
The March correction of 1994 was after interest rates were lifted in February of that year. The November 1963 blip was the day of the JFK assassination, some commentators reported later a heavy short interest in the market the morning of the Dallas event.
60 years ago we were also at war, though that could perhaps be said about any year… 90 years back WW1, markets were shut August to December 1914 on economists’ warnings that the European protagonists would end up having to sell all their US securities to pay for the fighting. So authorities closed all markets to avoid it. The opposite occurred of course – European powers shipped all their gold to the US for safekeeping and to buy armaments, creating the world’s newest superpower, and a raging US bull market till 1917.
Watch especially the 1964 shape; a president seeking re-election, and going to great lengths to make it happen, even fabricating events…
Why anyone continues to believe what a politician has to say beats me, however, do always try to find two sides to a story, perhaps the truth lies somewhere in between.
What is more important, however; relate the news at the time to the market, and the trend that was in place, and that then took place afterward. Learn the future by studying the past. The repetition cannot be exact of course, but it will rhyme, especially at 360 degrees.
Anyone wanna bet on a headline soon – “more troops required for Iraq as tension escalates”?
(I am just thinking out loud there, however commodities, esp wheat, are coming out of very long accumulation lows, and thirty year cycles indicate major highs are possible over the next two to four years. Something will have to drive such a possible scenario…)
So which country’s leader has their nation more under family control, the US Bush or Nth Vietnam’s Dear Leader?
The 9/11 odor is just starting to smell interesting if you ask me. Will anyone put all the links together, and be alive long enough to tell the story? No wonder the current US administration goes all out to resist a full investigation into the event.
30 years plus ten from the Tonkin incident, 30 years on from the start of the Watergate trial (so named after the Hotel in Washington where the break-in occurred, 1972 I think), 30 months from 9/11. One chart just might copy another.
For further reference, see these Dow Jones charts:
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