In this in-depth conversation on the State of the Markets podcast, Akil Patel, author of The Secret Wealth Advantage – breaks down his influential 18-year economic cycle model and what it reveals about today’s markets. Drawing on history, housing data, debt patterns, and global political shifts, Akil explains why the current boom is entering its final phase, how government interventions amplify long-term cycles, and what signs point to a looming crisis around 2025/26. He also explores the dynamics of commodities, property, interest rates, and the generational psychology that blinds policymakers to repeating patterns. For listeners seeking clarity on where the economy is headed and how to prepare, this episode provides a rare and deeply informed perspective.

05:12 – Most investors don’t realise we’re entering the last phase of the 18-year cycle.

08:47 – Government interventions often extend the boom, but they also magnify the coming downturn.

12:57 – The private sector is suffering the most now, especially in countries overloaded with debt.

16:20 – Housing remains the key driver – when real estate overheats, the cycle is nearing its peak.

22:04 – We tend to repeat the same mistakes every generation because nobody studies long-term economic patterns.

27:33 – The next financial crisis isn’t random – the signals have been building for years.

33:10 – Countries with heavy private-sector borrowing will feel the shock first.

41:55 – If history is any guide, 2025/26 will be a decisive turning point for global markets