Purple cows, flying pigs, the black swan. They are all symbols of what is thought impossible.

Dating back to the time of the Roman Emperors, swans were white, pigs didn’t fly and cows were not purple.

So you can imagine the shock of early European settlers to Australian shores when – to their utter amazement – a black swan glided past.

It was Dutch navigator Willem de Vlamingh that is recorded as having made the first ever (European) observation.

Since then, the Black Swan has become a bit of an economic celebrity.

The philosopher and early economist John Stuart Mill used the statement ‘all swans are white’ to show how a large number of consistent observations don’t always lead to the right conclusion.

Statistician Nassim Taleb made the water bird famous again when he used the term as the title of his 2007 book – The Black Swan. This book described the aftermath of the 2007 Global Financial Crisis (GFC).

And the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor, Doctor Phillip Lowe, just used the term during the 28 May Australian Senate enquiry into the COVID19 outbreak and its economic impact.

He was quoted using the same term to describe the arrival of the Pandemic.

He called it a ” Black Swan” event

Well it may have been a Black Swan event to our esteemed RBA Governor.

But it was most definitely not to the Property Sharemarket Economics (PSE) team who study and research the 18.6-year Real Estate Cycle

You might think this is a bold statement; let me explain.

About the economic term ‘Black Swan’, Investopedia.com provides the following.

A black swan is an unpredictable event
that is beyond what is normally expected
of a situation and has potentially severe
consequences. Black Swan events are
characterized by their extreme rarity, their
severe impact, and the widespread insistence
they were obvious in hindsight.

Look at how the above paragraph describes events, their rarity, and their impact. You can almost feel the emotion and fear as you read it.

RBA Governor Lowes’ address to the Senate committee included many of these same terms. He said:

“As a country, we will need to turn our minds as to how to move out of this shadow…
…With the national health outcomes better than earlier feared, it is possible that the economic downturn will not be severe as earlier thought”

I get the feeling that the RBA Bank had no idea it was time to plan for an economic slowdown.

But we have been here before.

The PSE team’s research of the 18.6-year Real Estate cycle shows a repeatable pattern throughout history. It’s 14 years up and 4 down for US land prices.

We explain to subscribers how and when the current 18.6-year cycle will be punctuated by a mid-cycle slowdown (MCS).

Let me be frank; the idea of COVID19 being solely responsible for the economic damage here and around the world is not based on the cycle research of the PSE team.

The PSE team are on record stating there would be a sharemarket panic from early 2020 and then a MCS would begin potentially lasting until late 2021.

We also said these mid-cycle events are the most confusing time of the whole cycle.

My team knew in advance an economic slowdown was due. The history we study of previous Real Estate cycles called for the first half of the cycle to conclude around 2020. And then we waited for an ‘unexpected’ event.

This event is different every cycle. That’s why no one expects it.

White feathers – or its plumage – protect the white swan against a backdrop of European snow. But for the Australian swans, who nest and reproduce on the mud in Australia’s rivers and lakes, black is better.

Survival of the most adaptable – or fittest – you could say.

A black swan is an unpredictable event, suggested Investopedia, above. Remember Doctor Lowe used that term to describe the arrival of the virus and the economic damage it caused. To him, it was a Black Swan event.

Because nothing at his disposal warned him it was time for the economy to enter a slowdown.

Does that mean the economy runs on purple cows, flying pigs and black swans? Possibly so.

Imagine how this PSE knowledge can help your investment and trading decisions.

It’s all on the PSE website. On the record and ready to assist you.

The RBA Governor himself did not have this information to provide to the Senate committee, but you can.

Survival of the most adaptable – or fittest – for investors, you could say.

Click here and see for yourself.

Best wishes

Phil Anderson
and your Property Sharemarket Economics team.

P.S – Your Property Sharemarket Economics team, based on the studies of Phil Anderson, have three secrets. Only subscribers to the PSE service get them.

Number one; the 18.6-year real estate cycle, and how it repeats, obviously.

Number two; the ‘Decade Cycle’. This is how the Dow and US markets move from years ‘0’ through ‘9’ each decade. It’s basically repeated for several hundred years now.

Number three, our ‘Financial Timetable’. And that’s top secret.

Phil takes you through this Financial Timetable in his classes. If Phil’s Timetable does not impress you when you see it with Phil and your own eyes, if you don’t say under your breath: “That’s so impossible, I refuse to believe it”, (or something similar) Phil will offer to refund you the cost of your subscription.

Click here to get started.