In 2005, Fred Harrison wrote an article about the “Winner’s Curse” phase of the property cycle. This is when people make the biggest upward errors in their calculation of what a property is worth to secure the house of their dreams. Harrison forecasts that the multiple of house prices to income will reach a record. This is connected to the market recovery after the election, where Blair is building his re-election strategy around Brown’s claim.

For the record, Brown failed to take measures against another land boom. It is said that Brown was too late to forestall the crash. Brown believes that high house prices are due to the drop in the output of new homes. Whilst Harrison traces land values over four centuries and identifies a clear pattern of 18-year cycles.

Harrison explains the process of the 18-year cycle with a 14-year house-building cycle and construction cycle. Harrison states that during the last two years of the construction cycle, people recklessly expose themselves to the Winner’s Curse. Harrison forecasts that many house buyers who think they are about to pull off great deals this Easter will pay a heavy price in the recession of 2010.

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