So here we are.

After a bull run in the US lasting 10 years we’ve started the mid cycle slowdown.

We’ve even updated the clock on the website.

I have shown you in my book that from 1800 in the US, every current property cycle has been bigger than the one before it.

Since 1990, and the rise of China and the fall of the Berlin Wall, the cycles have become truly global in nature.

Therefore, the emotional events that are going to drive the cycle also have to be global. Hence the virus. This should not have surprised you.

And the bigger the cycles get the more coordinated the busts become. It’s therefore not surprising that the UK and Australia, due to their size, have come hurtling down with the US.

We’ve been here before.

In the last mid-cycle slowdown the DJI came down 50% of that cycles range, and it’s done it again within a day or two of the March equinox.

And if you think Australia’s never had this type of decline in the mid of the cycle before go back to 1981 when there was a 41% drop. Yes, it took a bit more time to get there but a devastating drop just the same.

This current decline is an over reaction. This was going to happen no matter what. It was due – mid of the cycle. The 14 years up in asset prices and credit creation is always punctured by a mid-cycle slowdown.

The pandemic has made the fear more palpable.

If you’d attended my November 2018 Melbourne event you’d have heard the same as Ben from Pumped on Property. As a result of flying over from Brisbane, attending the session and reading the 2020 Share Trading Flight Plan he told his parents to put their super in cash at the end of last year, and they did. I betcha he’s their favourite son now.

And just yesterday, Danny sent us this:

“Thank you so much for your timely updates. I lost so much money in the GFC, but this time I was in 100% cash – even in my Super. I sincerely thank you as you have saved and family a lot of grief ”

And from Steve:

“Phil,  I am offering a sincere and simple thank you for the work you and your team do. it helps us keep calm to see the bigger patterns you share,  as we ” shelter in place ” in California to avoid the direct infection from the virus.”

I sincerely hope you have faired well at the start of this slowdown, one that will continue on into 2021.

If you would like to become a subscriber, click here to start.

One things for sure, current events are showing us to Remember the Future.

Best wishes


and your Property Share Market Economics team.