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Dear Readers,

Everyone is talking about gold.

With four years of Trump to look forward to and the likely inflation his policies will deliver I am not surprised.

Gold will be in the headlines from now on. Quite a lot.

Today, however, I’m going to ask to ignore that.

Gold is done for now.

It’s had its run and won’t appreciate as much as the commodity I will look at today.

It’s one that is far more important to the remaining years of the 18.6-year Real Estate Cycle.

If you follow what I say this newsletter could be quite lucrative for your investment portfolio.

And get you in before the majority realise too! So don’t overlook the importance of this newsletter.

Let’s begin.

Introducing… “Doctor”  Copper. ‍⚕️

Today I want to talk to you today about copper.

Market insiders refer to it as “Doctor Copper”, because of its preternatural ability to call turns in the economy: it must have a PhD in finance or economics.

But with all of the attention currently being paid to gold, the importance of copper is something the media seems to have forgotten. I am not sure why. The fact is that the more column inches devoted to an asset the less likely you are to experience outsized gains should you believe the hype and buy some.

The major move higher for gold (for now) has already happened! Basically, you’re too late if you think now is the time to get in. So, now you’ll require some patience to allow for the correct set-up to emerge before going back in.

Which brings us nicely to why you should be paying attention to our learned doctor.

Because he has something important to teach us about the latter stages of the real estate cycle. I will come back to that in a minute.

It’s also important for another reason. Take a look at the following headline.

Source – Live wire markets

I found the above article of much interest. It’s about geopolitics – and I am pretty sure that the author hasn’t a clue about the 18.6-year Real Estate Cycle – but some of what she said resonates strongly with me.

Here’s a quote from the article.

For all the challenges the mining industry is facing, from the green transition to concerns around pollution, ultimately, it’s here to stay. Mining is a critical part of the potential solutions to those very concerns for a long time to come.
It’s not the only thing either.

Critical minerals are essential in the AI transformation—and, furthermore, to the increasing militarisation of the world. It’s a frightening truth that the US military is one of the biggest consumers of copper, and it is far from alone in an increasingly uncertain world.

“Militarization”, “the green transition”, “AI transformation”.

Copper is essential to all of that. The stakes don’t get higher than that.

And here, we have a correlation to both the 18.6-year cycle AND the Kondratieff Wave commodity super cycle. As it happens, our study of both this and the real estate cycle strongly suggests that both are likely to peak at roughly the same time.

A rare event. This opening paragraph from the article above strongly relates to the typical late Kondratieff Wave behavior: which is countries around the world trying to ensure they have access to the world’s most important commodities.

As history shows time and time again, this “access” is always underwritten by a country’s military, generally at the expense of someone else’s military. As the single leading consumer of copper, do you think the US military is interested in tolerating anything that denies them this access?

This is why copper is suddenly a “national security” issue.

As the economist who discovered this Long-wave in commodities, Nikolai Kondratieff, noted that the final years of his eponymous wave witnessed “wars of expansion” as countries fought to secure the best resources for themselves.

If that weren’t enough, there’s the small matter of the 18.6-year real estate cycle and the demand for copper. This is because the final years always involve a housing boom, and all houses require a LOT of copper (think hot water pipes, electrical circuits and internet connectivity in every new house built). But it’s more nuanced than that.

The article above mentions the green transition and the need to modernize the grid. China, for example, intends to spend $800bn by 2030. But that grid remember sits on land.

Going hand in hand with the need to modernize electricity grids is artificial intelligence (AI). As Robert Friedland, Chairman of Ivanhoe Mines, was quoted for the above article.

“There is not enough electricity to power the US’s artificial intelligence ambitions,” says Friedland, pointing to plans to invest $1.35tr in artificial intelligence globally by 2030.

Friedland argues that the country with the most control over copper supplies will “win the minerals war” and could be dominant in artificial intelligence as well as in military technology.

I hope you can now appreciate the massive drivers behind what promises to be a spectacular ride higher for this critical element. Given these drivers, what’s happening to the price of copper and other commodities?

Could this be the “trade” of this decade?

It’s here where things get interesting. As you’ve just read, the drivers for coppers near term future are immense. Experts predict that the world will need six new large copper mines to be discovered, prospected, and brought into production every year from now on.

The problem for these miners is that the price of copper is somewhat low. It’s 20% below the recent high just after the pandemic.

And as the following chart shows, it’s very undervalued relative to US stocks.

(The chart below tracks the relative movement of commodities, including copper, against stocks: when the line moves up, commodities are doing better – and therefore will attract more capital relative to the stock market; when the line moves down, the opposite is happening).

Source – Bloomberg, Goehring & Rozencwajg Models

So, despite the expectation of this new surge in demand for copper (and other commodities), the market price simply is not playing ball. You’d have to go back to the 1960’s to witness copper and other commodities so undervalued.

What’s the reason? Well, some people are pointing to the weakness of Chinese demand. Or perhaps to the fact that Trump is planning a slew of tariffs to affect their exports.

Frankly, though, these tariff fears are way overblown and far more nuanced than you are hearing.

(I will leave this story for another day).

If you’re an investor, suffice to say, you may not live long enough to ever see such a set up again in your life.

And for what it’s worth: the last time Trump took office; his policies saw copper take off like a rocket! Copper was just US$2.50/pound in early 2017. Four years later, it was $5/pound. A 40% rise.

Could history repeat?

My view is that it will. Copper is about to undergo one of the biggest bull markets in the history of commodity markets.

And why am I so confident?

Because this is where my knowledge of the 200+ year real estate cycle comes in. Copper always surges into the final peak of the cycle.

So, if you’re interested in investing in commodities, I believe you need to be watching, waiting, and ready for action once the break higher commences.

All you need now is the timing to buy before the general public are aware and sell once Johnny sixpack and co finally capitulate and dive headfirst right at the top.

And the ability to correctly read and interpret a stock chart to execute your entry.

That’s what membership to the Boom Bust Bulletin (BBB) can give you.

Each month all the latest news and happenings concerning the turning of the real estate cycle will be sent to your inbox. It will teach you the history of the cycle, and why I’m certain that the same history portends a classic set up when it comes to copper.

The BBB can guide you through the basics of the real estate and stock markets, giving you the tools you need to take full advantage of the timing of the economy.

This is the unique benefit of membership. No-one else in the markets will possess the timing you have.

Because no-one else studies the land market the way you will, thanks to the BBB.

And all that for just $4USD a month! Insane value.

It is really quite hard to look past how things are starting to set themselves up here. Trump’s entourage of government and private advisors include some of the world’s foremost tech billionaires and experts. They understand the importance of commodities to their businesses.

I’d imagine they will now make Trump fully aware of it also.

Friedland is already seeing country investments in copper mining start to ramp up—as forementioned, China is heavily involved. He believes that during this term of the Trump Presidency, there will be a greater focus on critical minerals supply given the tech team Trump has surrounded himself with.

And if you reside in Australia, better news awaits.

“Australia is one of the most reliable sources of minerals,” says Friedland, adding, “this partnership [between Australia and the US] is the most important mineral partnership in the world.”

Folks, buckle up.

I have given you the early warning you needed.

The next step is in your hands.

Sign up now.

Best wishes,
Darren J Wilson
and your Property Sharemarket Economics Team

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This content is not personal or general advice. If you are in doubt as to how to apply or even should be applying the content in this document to your own personal situation, we recommend you seek professional financial advice. Feel free to forward this email to any other person whom you think should read it.