THE PARTY HAS STARTED! So say the best experts in the financial world. But when the partying stops, let us guide you safely to the exits.

You’d think with the next US president now elected conclusively, with all parties (this time) accepting the result, the news cycle would start to move on to more mundane undertakings?

It appears not, however. Instead, a new sport has now emerged.

And it’s this: how should we invest to take advantage of the next four years? Round up a number of experts and elite market participants and they’ll give you lots of ideas.

And that’s the focus of this week’s newsletter. What are these people saying? Why do they hold the views that they do and is their advice sound or not?

I will cover this. But I want to leave you with one caution: what have they missed?

Trust me, it is a BIG missing piece. And it gives you the chance to identify just whose advice to follow. And for how long.
Let’s look now at what the experts are saying you need to look for during the Trump presidency.

Including some investment ideas for you on how to play it.

But know this. You are more than welcome to keep on partying, but make sure you party right next to the exit.

By the end of this newsletter, you’ll understand precisely why.

From one of the biggest superannuation funds in Australia to a possible brand new US Treasury Secretary, no stone has seemingly been left unturned by the financial media to gain access to some of the brightest minds in finance.

And, to the surprise of no-one, their collective advice has started focusing on the US itself.

Obviously, investing in the world’s biggest and most liquid stock market on earth is a must for these final few years of the bull market. I speak of course of US equity markets such as the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ.

John Pearce, veteran chief investment officer of one of Australia’s largest pension/superannuation funds, UniSuper, agrees with this premise: stick with the US. But he adds a caveat: watch your portfolio carefully.

Pearce is wary of stretched valuations (high price-to-earnings ratios) and concentration (domination by the large tech companies) in the American stock market market. Yet the same problem keeps coming up at his monthly asset allocation meetings: is there any strong reason for moving money away from the US? As he pointed out in a recent interview:

“Calling the end of US exceptionalism is a bit premature. Capital goes where it’s most welcome and it still seems to be the most capital friendly, most dynamic economy to invest in,”

So his advice is to be “a holder rather than a buyer”.

It’s a very potent argument. Not only did US equities surge to new highs upon news of Trump’s overwhelming victory, but the US Federal Reserve decided now was the right time to cut rates once again.

This was a clear signal for investors to take full advantage is to buy US stocks, right? Certainly, US residents can and should do so according to their preferred investment strategy and timeline.

However, if you reside elsewhere, in places like Australia or the UK, it’s more problematic.

There are today many app-based exchanges that provide zero commission when purchasing stocks. So that’s no longer the problem it may once have been. But currency risk is a problem.

You need to convert pounds or Australian dollars to US dollars before you buy. But the strong dollar – in part due to the effect of Trump’s mooted policies – will erode some of the gains in local currency terms.

There is, however, a solution to this.

Today there is a plethora of Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) listed on both the UK And Australian stock markets that give you exposure to the US markets for low fees AND you can buy them in your preferred currency, removing the risk of diminishing returns via foreign exchange.

Above is the Australian-listed Beta Shares NASDAQ 100 ETF (ASX – NDQ), which, as the name suggests, tracks the top 100 NASDAQ listed stocks. Since Trump’s election win, it has strongly broken out to the upside from a sideways accumulation pattern, indicated by the green box in the chart above.

Another trend which affects equity markets is this. During each second half of the 18.6-year Real Estate Cycle, it has been equity indexes outside the US, in particular emerging markets, that deliver outsized gains. So you can consider that.

Plus, it’s a great way to diversify your portfolio’s growth and risks. Scott Bessent, the billionaire hedge fund manager who is favourite to become Donald Trump’s new Treasury Secretary, had this to say about one non-US market, Japan.

“I believe that this could be a secular bull market, one of the few in the world.”

The Nikkei index is holding a 19 per cent gain year-to-date and a 70 percent return over the past five years, but Bessent sees an opportunity for the shareholder-friendly reforms that the late prime minister Shinzo Abe instituted to eventually gain traction.

Above is the chart of another ETF, this one currency hedged to account for the movement between the yen and Aussie dollar.  Beta Shares Japan ETF Currency Hedged (ASX – HJPN).

It has recovered from its ‘moment’ when the Yen/USD carry trade was violently unwound in August. It now appears to be making a move back towards its all-time high price set in July.

If Bessent is correct, this ETF makes for a no fuss way to gain exposure to this potential secular bull market.

Another area where you might benefit from a Trump presidency is gold.

This is driven by central banks worldwide shifting their focus on building gold reserves.

To that you can add Trump’s spending plans lighting a fire underneath the US budget deficit and potentially increasing inflation. It’s the narrative of gold as a hedge against this that has seen retail investors pile in too.

This is why the price is doing well.

Again, Bessent is bullish on this market.

“I think we are in a long-term bull market in gold. I think we’re seeing reserve accumulation by central banks. I follow it closely. It’s my biggest position.”

The US dollar gold price has surged about 40 per cent to $2700 an ounce in the last 12 months, but mega-banks Citi and Goldman Sachs see it rising to $3000 by June 2025.

After a stellar run, in line with most gold exposed ETF’s, the Beta Shares gold ETF Currency Hedged (ASX – QAU) has recently paused and retraced. This is perfectly normal given the strong run up since October. Watch for another potential leg higher from here.

(Do note I’m not pushing Beta Shares as an ETF provider here: it is simply that Beta Shares do offer a range of currency hedged products which is important for non-US investors. The London Stock Exchange has a number of similar products as well).

Finally, a more controversial idea on how to play the next few years: Private Credit. Murky and mysterious as this asset class is, there are now products that support retail investor participation. UniSuper’s John Pearce said the opportunity in private credit remains very attractive.

“…550 basis points on top of a base of 4 per cent…They’re pretty healthy all-in yields.”

What that means in plain English can be summed up via a visit to La Trobe Financial’s website. Take a look at the interest rates on offer.

There are several ways investors can gain access to funds and it means you can obtain interest rates that blow standard savings products out of the water.

Who isn’t going to park spare cash here?

So, in broad terms, this is what the experts have said about their thoughts to best benefit yourself from the new era: equities in key markets, gold and private credit.. But what are they all missing?

There’s no doubt about the credentials of the above experts whom I’ve drawn upon to gather their thoughts on this subject.

So, I do not say lightly that – without exception – all of them have missed one aspect of this that would make their advice really sound. None of them have placed the land markets at the centre of their research, and therefore their advice is missing something critical.

You see, whilst all of them have alluded to potential problems that might come out of future Trump administration policies (e.g. tariffs), they lack knowledge of one key issue.

The cycle and its inherent knowledge of timing.

If Trump is going to really lean heavily on the Federal Reserve and American banks to both cut rates and massively increase credit creation, then the outcome will be higher inflation in the future. This then means interest rates will start to rise again. Whatever the new president wants.

And interest rates that can’t be “controlled” at this time of the cycle creates problems. It causes a rotation out of equities, certainly away from some of the best performers at the moment. It will certainly make markets more volatile.

What happens to private credit providers in this environment when high interest rates start to beat down companies in the real economy. The flow of capital slows down and this puts pressure on many sectors at once.

Here is how knowledge of the 18.6-year Real Estate Cycle is fundamental to your success.

If interest rates are going to eventually begin rising again, you want to know when, right?

Likewise, inflation. What kind of inflation are you looking at, and when will it take hold?

How long should you continue to buy and hold precious metals like gold and silver? If you want exposure to overseas markets like the US or Japan, how will you know when their respective market peaks are in? And do I hold or sell?

If you hand over your savings to private credit firms like La Trobe Financial, how long should you lock your money up for?

What do you do if the markets crash before the term is up?

Many questions, all critical to your financial future. Are you willing to accept taking the risk to capture outsized gains here with one arm tied behind your back? Knowledge is the key.

Thanks to over 200 plus years of land market history, you’ll soon realize that the key turning points throughout the cycle repeat. And with that, know what to look for ahead of time and act before the crowd reacts.

You instantly place yourself above the musings of experts and instead, hone a market edge unlike any other. And it’s simpler to do than you think.

You become our latest valued member of the Boom Bust Bulletin (BBB).

Each month you’ll receive a view of the economy without peer, as it places the most important market of all, land, at the heart of our research. Learn the history of the real estate cycle, its timing and why it simply must repeat!

Imagine having a view of the world beyond even the most seasoned market commentators and participants. It all starts with understanding why the land market is the key to economics.

And there’s no better place to start that journey than with the BBB.

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