Whose market timing would “you” trust? One with over 200 years of real estate cycle history or this investment app instead?

Ok, you can admit it now. This is something you’ve always wanted right?

One simple mobile phone app that can give you exposure to venture capital, private equity, and US residential and commercial real estate.

I mean, you haven’t experienced investing without this!

Seriously now, more and more investment tools like these are appearing in the market.

All of them promise you outsized investment returns, at minimal risk, with just one caveat.

They ask that you ‘please’ leave your capital with them for at least 5 years or more.

And that’s where the problems begin.

As the current 18.6-year Real Estate Cycle in the US enters what we call the ‘Winners Curse!’ phase, these services start to take on more and more risk to grab market share.

In fact, some will prove to be downright fraudulent.

Your ability to see through their expert marketing spin and understand that they instead speak to something far bigger at play here is critical.

Yes, soon it will seemingly never be easier to make good investment returns.

But ‘their’ timing, and the timing of the real estate cycle, are quite different.

Whose timing do you trust?

Let’s find out.

As stated, it’s time now in the real estate cycle to see the big financial innovations.

The race for finance companies is now on to grab as much market share as possible. The best way to do this is to remove all barriers of entry for possible investors.

Fundrise is a good current example of this. Let’s take a closer look at their offering.

Here is how it is explained on the Fundrise website:

In less than 5 minutes, you can create an account, choose your portfolio strategy, and complete your first investment.

After you place your initial investment, we’ll keep working to add new assets to your portfolio over time — with no additional investment required on your end. This means your already-diversified portfolio can become stronger year after year. You can then continue making contributions manually or set up recurring investments.

You can become a client in less than five minutes!

And you have multiple ways to become an investee. Via your financial planner, your retirement plan. Or even via your mobile phone.

But here’s the key bit: the type of investments that Fundrise can offer you. It’s not your standard stock market offering in publicly listed companies.

Fundrise gives you access to what the insiders are making money out of: for example, industrial real estate, private equity, venture capital, private credit.

This is where the well-connected make their market-beating returns.

Now you can too, according to Fundrise.

The types of investment incudes build-for-rent residential housing, high growth private tech companies, industrial real estate and high yield mezzanine or bridging loan financing.

Surely, this is the route to riches. It’s a brilliant idea. But….

Let’s assume for a minute you’re intrigued by this proposition. You understand the fact that normally such investment exposure would be beyond you.

You appreciate the fact you can handle almost all functions via a phone app and enjoy the low fees that investors will pay. Along with the quarterly dividends.

You are now motivated to explore their offering more fully, and you notice this (emphasis mine).

Is Fundrise a long-term investment?

Absolutely. Like all private market investments, investments in Fundrise should be viewed as long-term (5+ years). This is because we specifically select strategies based on their long-term return potential for our investors, not short-term optics. If you anticipate needing your investment back in the near-term, we don’t recommend investing with us.

Straight away, I can see an issue. You need to invest with them for several years.

Now, don’t think that this means your money is locked up or anything sinister. Fundrise offers a redemption program. Your initial investment capital is converted into shares which are then invested across your chosen products.

Thus, should you need to access some or all your capital, these shares can be sold, and the funds directed back to you. With no additional cost.

Well, great then. Seems I’ve got good control over my funds.

Oh, the details! See, Fundrise will accept you selling shares of your investments. But it takes a full quarter for that money to be sent to you.

That’s three whole months. Which can take quite a long time in certain market conditions.

Go back to October 2008. Imagine during that month that this app was available. If you sold everything in October, but had to wait until December 2008 for the deposit to hit your bank account, what kind of destruction to your capital would you have sat through?

I’ll be blunt. This is a problem. Funds like this aren’t interested in being in a position to give you back your money in a hurry.

Now, I will say it’s not without reason. Recall it’s you who have directed them to place your money in some of the most illiquid assets imaginable.

Bridging finance and industrial real estate do not lend themselves to fast wind ups.

But this is not a situation where, upon requesting liquidation of your position, you’re instantly out and then simply must be patient until your funds are delivered. Oh no.

It takes three months from the date the liquidation request is submitted to when the request is subsequently reviewed!

In the meantime – you’re in the market. Regardless of whether it’s moving higher or turning to ash.

In other words, if you’re going to invest here, you need to understand market timing. They have taken the view that over the medium term (the next five years) your investments will be ok because they will have ridden through any short-term fluctuations.

I am not so sure that’s the case.  Let me explain.

In relation to markets this year, I can say with confidence that something big is happening.

It’s no surprise at all that enterprises like Fundrise are coming to the fore.

It’s because of my knowledge of the history of the 18.6-year Real Estate Cycle that I knew what the signs would be and how to look for them.

That’s why I can present the evidence to you each week via this newsletter.

Fortunately for you, you don’t need to spend 10 years in the trenches like I did to gain this knowledge. All thanks to my co-worker Akhil Patel’s brilliant new book “The Secret Wealth Advantage.”

It’s a book you must own yourself. If you go to Chapter 10, The Land Boom, it details the phase of the cycle that we are currently in today.

Akhil details key aspects of this time like easy credit, good times, and fraudulent schemes right up to the global land boom and investor euphoria.

In brief, the book does state that overall, these are the good times of the cycle. Everything is going up in price, everyone has turned buoyant and positive about the future.

But the seeds of the eventual bust are also being laid too. And herein lies the risk of platforms like Fundrise. They are in effect part of the shadow banking system.

This is an area of the market that takes advantage of less regulation and oversight that traditional banks must abide by.

They will show you good returns, exposure to the right assets (real estate and credit funding) and insist on tying up your money for the long haul.

But as Akhil’s book shows, these funds push investor money into the market and push up the prices of assets. So new investors, such as those in Fundrise, must pay more and more for acquiring assets.

Well, they might tell you, it’s ok if you hold for long enough as returns go up over time.

And here’s where I tell you: the returns might be destroyed after the peak of the cycle. You’re effectively locking yourself in for a period of time that might include the Crash at the end of the cycle.

It only took me 15 minutes of reading their disclosure statement to realize that Fundrise do not understand the link between the land markets and the boom/bust nature of economies today.

Can you trust them to safely protect your money, even if they are a totally well-run investment firm?

My answer is no. Because they don’t get the timing.

But you do – if you follow what I have to say about the cycle.

Now, you may never have an interest in investing in Fundrise. But I can promise you that there will be many such schemes coming up in the next year or two, and at least one of them will grab your attention.

Should you invest or not? I won’t be able to advise you on every single idea out there. But you can learn for yourself how to approach such decisions. The quickest way to do this is to sign up for membership to the Boom Bust Bulletin (BBB).

In it I will teach you how you can develop your own market knowledge so that you can properly assess schemes like this and how they might run into the end of the cycle.

Each month I write about all the key turning points as we rapidly head towards an almighty peak in global land markets. All designed to better guide you through the most volatile and emotional time of the cycle: what PSE calls the “Winner’s Curse!”

So called for a very good reason!

You don’t want to be buying overpriced assets close to the peak unless you’re very sure you can sell quickly when the time is right. And to do this, you need to understand market timing.

I can help you. Fundrise’s lack of real estate cycle knowledge means they can’t.

In relation to the many, possibly even hundreds of, thousands of dollars, pounds, or euros you’re investing or considering investing in the markets right now, a $47 per year membership to my best insights is a no-brainer.

Only your knowledge of the timing behind it all can keep you and your family safe.

Armed with that knowledge, you can invest with confidence.

And exit before the real damage begins. What a market edge!

Sign up now.